Unit 1 Discussion 2
Eric W. Wasiolek
Futuring and Innovation
Dr. Rhonda Johnson
Describe an innovation idea
that is not possible today but will be available in the next 15 to 20 years.
Molecular Computers.
We
are nearing the end of Moore's law with the current chip technology. Moore's law states that the number of
transistors in an integrated circuit (chip) per square inch will double every
year. This has held true since 1965, and
has become part of the basis for the continued miniaturization of digital
devices. However, Moore's law is about
to run into physical limitations of the current photolithography process of
putting (printing) ever more transistors per square inch on the current
chemical surfaces (silicon, gallium arsenide) that limit miniaturization. Fundamentally new technologies at the
molecular and atomic level will lead to the ultimate miniaturization. I.e., you can't build a transistor that is
any smaller than a set of atoms unless you attempt to build a computer at the
quantum level.
I
am a subscriber to scientific American, and have read some articles in that
magazine on molecular, bio-molecular, and quantum computing. These technologies are clearly very much in
their infancy and wouldn't see any maturation for 15 to 20 years. Nano-computers, as come call them (nano being
at the billionth of a meter size) are done at the molecular level.
A traditional computer is just a voltage processor. A one is represented as a high voltage and a zero as a low voltage. In a logic gate, for example an AND gate, if two high voltages come in then a high voltage comes out, otherwise a low voltage comes out. In an OR gate is two low voltages go in a low voltage goes out, otherwise a high voltage goes out.
In a molecular computer there are no voltages. It is not a voltage processor. There are no lines and gates etched on a chemical surface to create a circuit. There are only molecules or an assemblage of molecules. A one is represented as one state of the molecule (or configuration), a zero is represented as another state of the molecule. This is not an electronic machine, it is a chemical machine. Yes there is some electronics involved in chemicals, as it is through electron sharing that atoms combine. The next generation of computers will not be built by computer scientists or electrical engineers, it will be built by chemists and physicists. Computer science will still obtain as the LOGIC of the molecules will be like the logic gates of a traditional computer and the ones and zeros that make up the computer instructions and data will at an abstract level be the same. So programming will be similar. At the physical leve the two computers are completely different. Not only is this a breakthrough technology, it is so completely different that breakthrough is not strong enough a term.
What
is not possible today and what doesn't exist today is a molecular
computer. By computer is meant an entire
working computer that can process information and perform tasks. This requires a molecular CPU and large
molecular memory both of which don't exist yet.
The current research has created some basic logic gates out of molecular
components. These logic gates need to be
connected into circuits, and these circuits need to form basic CPU components
like a sum-er, complementer, etc.. to be able create CPU components like an
arithmetic-logical unit (ALU).
Identify and discuss two of
the forces that define it and that may facilitate or reduce its likelihood of
success.
A
couple of forces that will define the molecular computer technology and
facilitate or reduce its likelihood of success are the setting up of labs to
work on molecular computers at universities, and funding of labs at
universities and in industry to continue and improve the work.
The
work in universities would be done primarily in physics and chemistry
departments and their associated labs.
Although this may appear to be computer science or electrical
engineering, the ability to hold bits in memory with a molecule, and to process
those bits (which are states of the molecule) through molecular logic gates
involves primarily physical and chemical research assuming a basic understanding
of the logic involved in creating gates, logic components, ALUs (logic units)
and entire computers that comes from electrical engineering and computer
science. So to some extent this may
involve a cross pollination of disciplines (chemistry, physics, computer
science, and electrical engineering), but the work would primarily be done in
physics and chemistry assuming knowledge of how computer hardware is built.
Funding
of this research in industry would also be helpful. This could be done in research units of
companies or in incubator labs funded by some startup source. Any practical application of this technology
awaits much more development and wouldn't be available for some 20 years.
Government
programs to pursue this research at national labs would be helpful as
well. This would require a funding
source which might need to come from a cabinet department or from congress.
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