Technological Forecasting and Group Decision Methods

This particular blog is more managerial than technical.  It discusses group decision making techniques which may be applied to technical decisions as well as forecasting technological futures

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The Delphi Group Decision Making Method

In the Delphi Group Decision Making Method a panel of experts on a topic are assembled and answer questions from a questionnaire in two or more rounds.  There is a facilitator for the group.  The facilitator takes the input from the experts each round and provides an anonymous summary of their technological strategies.  The experts review the summary and revise their strategies each round.  The successive inputs and revisions allow the group to converge towards a single strategy or similar strategy.  The experts may come from inside or outside the organization, but they are all expected to be knowledgeable in their field and position and on the topic of the group decision.  The process remains anonymous and even who made or had the most influence on the final decision is kept anonymous.  The facilitator sends out the questionnaires and collects the responses and summarizes the responses.

The Delphi method is often used in technological forecasting.  The experts give their opinions on a technology and on when the technology is expected to mature and be on the market.  The group essentially is attempting to forecast the technological future.  This group decision making method is used for other types of forecasting and decision making as well.

Two Other Group Decision Making Methods

Nominal Group Technique

In the nominal group technique, members present their solution to a problem.  Each solution is presented with a short explanation.  Duplicate solutions are eliminated from the set of possible solutions.  The solutions are then ranked by the group.  The solution with the highest rank is the decision.  Ranking is often done but not always done.  An evaluation or the best solutions may be done more subjectively.  Finally a vote is made on the solutions and the solution with the greatest number of votes wins.

Many and diverse inputs and opinions are encourage so the initial set of solutions is heterogeneous.  Participation of all members and a plurality of ideas is encouraged.  In technical decisions the members may be different members of an engineering department and may possibly include members from other departments for an outside perspective.  There is a facilitator.  The facilitator explains the procedures in a nominal group technique.  Ideas are first generated on paper, silently, not to discourage non-vocal members.  The ideas are then shared.  The group discusses the various proposals.  Finally the ideas are ranked and voted on.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT analysis is often used to identify the  strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, or threats surrounding a business.  It can also be used to identify the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats around a proposed technology or future product.  The group may look at various proposed solutions according to a SWOT analysis.  There may be strengths (for example features that the proposed product or technology will have that the competition doesn't), weaknesses (for example features that the competition has that the proposed product or technology do or will not have), opportunities (for example the ability to release a new product or technology or feature that is needed by the market for which no other company has a solution), or threats (for example technologies or products in the market that may make the proposed solution obsolete).  The group discusses the SWOT of various solutions, then narrows down the possible solutions based upon which have the best SWOT analysis, and finally select the solution that is most likely to succeed based upon the SWOT analysis (for example a technology or product that has clear strengths, few weaknesses, represents a great market opportunity, and doesn't seem to have serious threats on the horizon).

Compare and Contrast the Similarities and Differences Between Methods

Delphi and the Nominal Group Technique

One notable difference between the Delphi approach and the Nominal Group Technique, is that the Delphi approach is highly anonymous, whereas the Nominal Group Technique (NGT) involves and open discussion of various proposals and open ranking and voting of the proposals.  The NGT approach has the potential of embarrassing participants.  This is avoided in the Delphi anonymous approach.  In the Delphi approach it is not even known whose solution was accepted.

Delphi, NGT, and SWOT.

The SWOT discussion is open and is not anonymous as is the Delphi approach.  This could have the same repercussions as there are on the NGT approach.  However, SWOT is highly structured, and not a random presentation of different solutions.  The solutions are particularly evaluated around SWOT, which has been shown to be a very effective business analysis technique and hence now a classic technique.